Aggregating Predictions for the General Election

This site aggregates constituency-level predictions for the 2024 British general election.

Data is taken from:

• Britain Predicts (New Statesman) (16 June)
• Electoral Calculus (14 Jun)
• The Economist (14 June)
• The FT (12 June)
• Ipsos (18 June)
• More in Common (19 June)
• Savanta (19 June)
• Survation (16 June)
• YouGov (19 June)

Source code on GitHub.

Thrown together by Peter Inglesby. Drop me a line: peter.inglesby@gmail.com!

Summary

This summary shows, for each model and each party, the number of seats where that party is predicted to get the most votes.

Note that these totals are indicative of how the parties' level of support from each model's prediction, but won't match the number of seats predicted by each model.

To understand why, imagine two parties and ten constituencies, where a model predicts that party X will get more votes than party Y, and assigns party X a 90% chance of winning. In this case, the model may predict that X will win nine seats and Y one. However, in this summary, we will instead show X with ten and Y with none.

Constituencies

Showing all constituencies