Aggregating Predictions for the General Election

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This summary shows, for each model and each party, the number of seats where that party is predicted to get the most votes.

Seats are broken into three categories: those with margins greater than 10% (the darkest colours), those with margins between 5% and 10%, and those with margins less than 5% (the lightest colours).

	2019 (notional)	2024	Britain Predicts	Economist	electionmaps	Electoral Calc. STM	Electoral Calc. MRP	Focaldata	FT	Ipsos	JLP	More in Common	Savanta	Survation	WeThink	YouGov
	data	04 July	03 July	03 July	04 July	01 July	27 June	03 July	03 July	18 June	03 July	03 July	19 June	04 July	26 June	03 July
lab	151	307	297	330	344	388	383	354	359	365	308	340	393	372	368	331
lab	27	53	46	50	49	44	39	44	33	40	61	46	70	58	44	53
lab	22	51	75	53	38	37	27	48	54	48	73	43	53	57	53	41
con	307	44	2	16	25	6	16	26	14	25	9	26	1	4	15	28
con	37	38	27	36	30	16	19	39	32	32	36	51	8	17	23	28
con	28	39	83	66	45	39	25	40	50	58	66	48	44	40	38	42
lib	7	51	24	26	38	60	60	33	30	24	20	36	22	33	33	60
lib	1	11	16	11	17	7	6	11	16	7	18	5	9	13	10	7
lib	0	10	23	17	13	4	5	14	16	7	20	10	19	14	9	5
snp	38	2	14	6	8	5	15	4	2	6	2	1	0	4	11	4
snp	5	2	6	5	3	8	1	7	6	3	3	6	1	2	5	10
snp	5	5	3	10	8	2	8	5	11	6	10	9	7	5	13	4
oth	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
oth	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
oth	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
ref	0	2	1	0	1	3	5	0	1	2	1	1	0	1	1	0
ref	0	0	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2
ref	0	3	4	1	2	2	8	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	1
pc	1	2	3	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	3	1	3	2	2	2
pc	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	1
pc	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
grn	1	4	1	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	2
grn	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0
grn	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	0